#effective mitigation strategies

[walter-morales]

The Science of Risk: How to Quantify and Mitigate Business Uncertainty

Navigating uncertainty is part of running any business, and managing risk effectively can make a significant difference in long-term success. The science of risk quantification and mitigation gives entrepreneurs and managers a structured way to handle uncertainty, making it possible to make informed decisions even in unpredictable situations. Here, I’ll walk through practical strategies for quantifying business risk, backed by tested methods to help mitigate potential impacts. Understanding these tools and techniques is essential for creating stability and ensuring that a business is prepared for the unexpected.

Understanding the Types of Business Risks

Business risks come in various forms, each affecting the organization differently. In my experience, some of the most common include market, operational, financial, and reputational risks. Market risk involves changes in the business environment that can affect demand or profitability, such as economic downturns or shifts in consumer preferences. Operational risks, on the other hand, are tied to internal processes—factors like equipment malfunctions, supply chain issues, or process inefficiencies that disrupt operations.

Financial risks are another critical area, covering any uncertainties related to cash flow, credit, or investment losses. Poor cash flow management, for instance, can lead to unexpected shortfalls that impact the business’s ability to meet obligations. Reputational risks are unique because they involve public perception, which can be difficult to control but has an enormous impact on customer trust and loyalty. By understanding these risk categories, business owners can focus on areas that might be more vulnerable to fluctuations or failures, making the risk quantification and mitigation process more manageable.

Quantifying Risk with Probability Models

One of the fundamental methods for quantifying risk is through probability models, which use data to estimate the likelihood and potential impact of various scenarios. Probability distributions, for example, provide a way to understand the range of possible outcomes for a specific risk. Say we’re analyzing the risk of a product launch in a new market. By mapping out a range of sales forecasts based on historical data, we can assign probabilities to different outcomes, giving us a clearer picture of potential revenue.

Scenario analysis is another practical tool. This method involves creating multiple “what-if” scenarios that explore the potential impact of certain events. For instance, a company might consider how a 10% drop in consumer demand would impact revenue. By assigning probabilities to these scenarios, we can estimate the likelihood of each event and prepare accordingly. This structured approach allows for a realistic view of possible outcomes, helping to guide decisions based on quantifiable information.

Using Data Analytics to Measure Risk

Data analytics has revolutionized how businesses measure and manage risk. With data analytics, it’s possible to analyze vast amounts of information quickly and accurately, providing insights that enhance decision-making. Predictive analytics, which uses historical data to make projections, is one of the most valuable tools for risk management. This approach applies statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to forecast trends and behaviors, helping businesses anticipate potential risks before they materialize.

For instance, in a retail setting, predictive analytics might analyze past seasonal sales trends to project future demand. This insight helps manage inventory levels, ensuring that the business doesn’t overstock or understock products. Real-time data analytics is also valuable, providing immediate insights that allow businesses to respond proactively. Whether monitoring customer feedback or tracking market changes, data analytics enables a more responsive risk management process, strengthening the ability to make informed, timely decisions.

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Quantifying risk is essential, but without effective mitigation strategies, even the most accurate assessments can fall short. Risk mitigation involves identifying strategies that reduce either the likelihood or the impact of risks. One approach that I find useful is diversification. Diversifying revenue streams, suppliers, or products minimizes reliance on any single source, reducing vulnerability. For example, a business that relies heavily on one supplier can face severe operational issues if that supplier encounters problems. By working with multiple suppliers, the business has a backup plan, ensuring continuity.

Insurance is another valuable tool in risk mitigation. By transferring specific financial risks to an insurance provider, businesses can protect against substantial losses from incidents like property damage, liability claims, or disruptions. While insurance cannot eliminate risks entirely, it provides a safety net that allows businesses to focus on growth with greater peace of mind.

Establishing contingency plans is another fundamental strategy. A contingency plan outlines steps to take if specific risks occur, ensuring a quick, effective response. For instance, in the case of a data breach, a well-designed contingency plan might include protocols for securing systems, notifying customers, and restoring operations. These proactive measures allow businesses to recover more efficiently, minimizing disruption and financial impact.

Creating a Risk Monitoring System

Effective risk management isn’t a one-time process; it requires continuous monitoring. By setting up a risk monitoring system, businesses can track potential threats and adapt strategies as necessary. This system might involve regular financial reviews, customer feedback loops, or supply chain audits, depending on the specific risks identified.

One practical approach to monitoring is using Key Risk Indicators (KRIs), which are metrics that signal changes in risk levels. For instance, a sudden drop in sales could indicate market changes, prompting a closer examination of consumer behavior or competitor actions. By tracking KRIs, businesses can catch potential issues early, allowing for prompt intervention.

Regularly reviewing risk factors and updating mitigation strategies keeps the business resilient. As market conditions, technologies, or customer preferences evolve, these adjustments ensure that risk management practices remain relevant and effective. Creating a dedicated risk monitoring system is an investment that pays off in stability, helping the business stay prepared and agile.

Common Pitfalls in Risk Management

Even with a solid risk management strategy, certain pitfalls can undermine effectiveness. One common mistake is neglecting to diversify. While diversification is often seen as a financial principle, it applies across business operations as well. A business heavily reliant on a single product or market can face severe challenges if conditions shift unfavorably. By spreading focus across different products or markets, entrepreneurs reduce the risk of substantial losses from one area.

Another common issue is underestimating low-probability risks. While these events may seem unlikely, they can have significant impacts. For instance, natural disasters, though rare, can disrupt operations completely. Businesses should consider these possibilities, especially if they operate in areas prone to such events, and develop contingency plans accordingly.

Lastly, failing to adapt to changes is a frequent pitfall. Risk management should be dynamic, with regular reviews and updates as conditions shift. By remaining flexible and reassessing risks periodically, businesses can avoid outdated practices that may no longer apply to the current market environment.

Key Takeaways on Quantifying and Mitigating Business Risk

Use probability models to estimate likelihood and potential impact

Leverage data analytics for predictive insights and real-time monitoring

Diversify revenue streams, suppliers, and products for stability

Invest in insurance to cover high-risk areas

Establish a risk monitoring system with Key Risk Indicators (KRIs)

In Conclusion

Risk is a natural part of running a business, but with the right strategies in place, it becomes manageable. Quantifying risk through probability models, data analytics, and scenario analysis provides valuable insights, while mitigation efforts like diversification, insurance, and contingency planning add layers of protection. Establishing a risk monitoring system and avoiding common pitfalls allow for proactive management, keeping the business resilient in the face of change. By implementing these techniques, entrepreneurs and managers can safeguard their ventures, focusing on growth and innovation without being hindered by uncertainty.

[newsepick]

Global Cyclone Impact: A Detailed Summary

Read to know more about Cyclones- powerful tropical storms, that wreak havoc with high winds and heavy rain. Learn about their formation, intensity, and how they leave a devastating impact on regions worldwide

[signode-blog]

Mastering Technical Analysis: Strategies to Reduce Noise and False Signals

Introduction Technical analysis is a powerful tool used by traders and investors to make informed decisions based on historical price movements and market data. However, amidst the vast sea of information, it’s easy to get lost in the noise and false signals that can lead to poor trading outcomes. In this guide, we’ll delve into effective strategies to minimize noise and filter out false…

[organicbeing]

Illuminating the Hidden Perils: How Wi-Fi and Bluetooth Could Impact Your Health

In the hustle and bustle of our modern world, we often overlook the invisible forces that surround us. Among these, radiofrequency radiation, emitted by ubiquitous technologies like Wi-Fi routers and Bluetooth devices, permeates our daily lives. Could this “radiofrequency pollution” be silently wreaking havoc on our health? At first glance, the notion might seem far-fetched, even absurd. Yet, as…

[cselandscapearchitect]

Natural Turf vs. Artificial Grass: Battling the Urban Heat Island Effect in the Low Desert

The low desert region faces the challenges of the urban heat island effect, where urban areas experience significantly higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas due to human activities and the built environment. As we strive to mitigate this heat island effect, one key consideration is the choice between natural turf and artificial grass. Both options have their own advantages and…

[epicdogymoment]

shout out to brown and levisons face theory

[businesssinfo]

Control valve noise and cavitation can significantly impact industrial processes, personnel safety, and equipment reliability. We at Fevisa, a leading  control valves suppliers, Valve Stockist in Dubai, practices the industry leading standards by understanding the causes, effects, and employing appropriate mitigation strategies, engineers and operators in order to optimize control valve performance, minimize noise levels, and mitigate the detrimental effects of cavitation.

[prokopetz]

A lot of folks are responding to the whole Reddit situation by calling for the return of decentralised forums, and I think it's important to remember that, contrary to certain popular narratives, the reason early 2000s forum culture has fallen by the wayside is not because people are Just Lazy. Certainly, ease of use is part of it, but a much larger part of it is how vulnerable self-hosted forums are.

Basically, the problem is that even the largest and most carefully managed self-hosted forums can be rendered unusable more or less indefinitely by a single sufficiently determined hostile actor. This can take the form of both attacks on the forum's social infrastructure (i.e., via sock-puppet accounts, botting, organised "raids", etc.) and attacks on its technical infrastructure (i.e., via hacking, DDoS, etc.). In either case, a self-hosted forum has no real defence, and the majority of decentralised forum communities survive only by virtue of their relative obscurity; once a self-hosted forum manages to attract the attention of That One Guy who's willing to devote his life to shitting the place up over some microscopic slight, it's effectively game over.

Right now, there are essentially only two mitigation strategies:

Gathering huge numbers of communities under a single, massively centralised technical infrastructure that's simply too large and robust for any one hostile actor to bring down; and

Hardening the community's social infrastructure either by going private and invite only (i.e., the Discord approach), or by making use of a vast centralised pool of volunteer labour to aggressively enforce community standards (i.e., the Reddit approach).

To be clear, these are not intractable problems; other solutions may well exist. However, any proposed plan for bringing decentralised public forums back needs to address them. If you're going in operating under the assumption that forums have become marginalised simply because corporations are evil and people are lazy, you're setting yourself up to learn the hard way why self-hosted forums no longer seem to be capable of growing beyond a certain point.

[mydango]

Earth's Icy Past: Understanding the History of Ice Ages | Proterozoic Snowball Earth

Understanding the History of Ice Ages

Earth’s Ice Ages are periods in the planet’s history characterized by a significant drop in global temperatures, leading to the expansion of ice sheets and glaciers. These periods can last for thousands or even millions of years, and have occurred periodically throughout the planet’s history. The study of Earth’s Ice Ages provides valuable insights into the causes and consequences of climate…

[fairuzfan]

"We have come together as Palestinian academics and staff of Gaza universities to affirm our existence, the existence of our colleagues and our students, and the insistence on our future, in the face of all current attempts to erase us.

The Israeli occupation forces have demolished our buildings but our universities live on. We reaffirm our collective determination to remain on our land and to resume teaching, study, and research in Gaza, at our own Palestinian universities, at the earliest opportunity.

We call upon our friends and colleagues around the world to resist the ongoing campaign of scholasticide in occupied Palestine, to work alongside us in rebuilding our demolished universities, and to refuse all plans seeking to bypass, erase, or weaken the integrity of our academic institutions. The future of our young people in Gaza depends upon us, and our ability to remain on our land in order to continue to serve the coming generations of our people.

We issue this call from beneath the bombs of the occupation forces across occupied Gaza, in the refugee camps of Rafah, and from the sites of temporary new exile in Egypt and other host countries. We are disseminating it as the Israeli occupation continues to wage its genocidal campaign against our people daily, in its attempt to eliminate every aspect of our collective and individual life.

Our families, colleagues, and students are being assassinated, while we have once again been rendered homeless, reliving the experiences of our parents and grandparents during the massacres and mass expulsions by Zionist armed forces in 1947 and 1948.

Our civic infrastructure – universities, schools, hospitals, libraries, museums and cultural centres – built by generations of our people, lies in ruins from this deliberate continuous Nakba. The deliberate targeting of our educational infrastructure is a blatant attempt to render Gaza uninhabitable and erode the intellectual and cultural fabric of our society. However, we refuse to allow such acts to extinguish the flame of knowledge and resilience that burns within us.

Allies of the Israeli occupation in the United States and United Kingdom are opening yet another scholasticide front through promoting alleged reconstruction schemes that seek to eliminate the possibility of independent Palestinian educational life in Gaza. We reject all such schemes and urge our colleagues to refuse any complicity in them. We also urge all universities and colleagues worldwide to coordinate any academic aid efforts directly with our universities.

We extend our heartfelt appreciation to the national and international institutions that have stood in solidarity with us, providing support and assistance during these challenging times. However, we stress the importance of coordinating these efforts to effectively reopen Palestinian universities in Gaza.

We emphasise the urgent need to reoperate Gaza’s education institutions, not merely to support current students, but to ensure the long-term resilience and sustainability of our higher education system. Education is not just a means of imparting knowledge; it is a vital pillar of our existence and a beacon of hope for the Palestinian people.

Accordingly, it is essential to formulate a long-term strategy for rehabilitating the infrastructure and rebuilding the entire facilities of the universities. However, such endeavours require considerable time and substantial funding, posing a risk to the ability of academic institutions to sustain operations, potentially leading to the loss of staff, students, and the capacity to reoperate.

Given the current circumstances, it is imperative to swiftly transition to online teaching to mitigate the disruption caused by the destruction of physical infrastructure. This transition necessitates comprehensive support to cover operational costs, including the salaries of academic staff.

Student fees, the main source of income for universities, have collapsed since the start of the genocide. The lack of income has left staff without salaries, pushing many of them to search for external opportunities.

Beyond striking at the livelihoods of university faculty and staff, this financial strain caused by the deliberate campaign of scholasticide poses an existential threat to the future of the universities themselves.

Thus, urgent measures must be taken to address the financial crisis now faced by academic institutions, to ensure their very survival. We call upon all concerned parties to immediately coordinate their efforts in support of this critical objective.

The rebuilding of Gaza’s academic institutions is not just a matter of education; it is a testament to our resilience, determination, and unwavering commitment to securing a future for generations to come.

The fate of higher education in Gaza belongs to the universities in Gaza, their faculty, staff, and students and to the Palestinian people as a whole. We appreciate the efforts of peoples and citizens around the world to bring an end to this ongoing genocide.

We call upon our colleagues in the homeland and internationally to support our steadfast attempts to defend and preserve our universities for the sake of the future of our people, and our ability to remain on our Palestinian land in Gaza. We built these universities from tents. And from tents, with the support of our friends, we will rebuild them once again."

[mindblowingscience]

In the global effort to combat climate change, large-scale, plant-based strategies such as planting forests and cultivating biofuels are an increasingly important part of countries' plans to reduce their overall carbon emissions, but a study in the journal Science finds that well-intended strategies could have unforeseen impacts on biodiversity and that, in general, restoring forests has the most beneficial effect on wildlife. The study is titled "Variable impacts of land-based climate mitigation on habitat area for vertebrate diversity." The authors, including New York Botanical Garden (NYBG) Assistant Curator Evelyn Beaury, Ph.D., argue that policy makers and conservation officials should consider impacts on biodiversity when evaluating the most effective tools to mitigate climate change.

Continue Reading.

[covid-safer-hotties]

Also preserved on our archive

By Bill Shaw

A new study in eClinicalMedicine has found that healthy volunteers infected with SARS-CoV-2 had measurably worse cognitive function for up to a year after infection when compared to uninfected controls. Significantly, infected controls did not report any symptoms related to these cognitive deficits, indicating that they were unaware of them. The net effect is that potentially billions of people worldwide with a history of COVID-19, but no symptoms of long COVID, could have persistent cognitive issues without knowing it.

The study’s lead author, Adam Hampshire, professor of cognitive and computational neuroscience at King's College London, said:

"It … is the first study to apply detailed and sensitive assessments of cognitive performance from pre to post infection under controlled conditions. In this respect, the study provides unique insights into the changes that occurred in cognitive and memory function amongst those who had mild COVID-19 illness early in the pandemic."

This news comes as pandemic mitigation measures have all but been abandoned by governments across the globe. Public health practice has been decimated to the point where even surveillance data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and resulting hospitalizations, deaths, and other outcomes are barely collected let alone published.

The data that are available indicate, per the most recent modeling from the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) on September 23, that since the beginning of August there have been over 1 million infections per day in the US alone. This level of transmission is expected to persist through the remainder of September and all of October. For the months of August through October, these levels of transmission are the highest of the entire pandemic

The study on cognitive deficits has been shared widely across social media, with scientists and anti-COVID advocates drawing out its dire implications.

Australian researcher and head of the Burnet Institute, Dr. Brendan Crabb, who has previously advocated for a global elimination strategy to stop the pandemic, wrote:

"Ethical issues aside, this is a powerful addition to an already strong dataset on Covid-driven brain damage affecting cognition & memory. Given new (re)infections remain common, this work… should influence a re-think on current prevention/treatment approaches."

The study enrolled 36 healthy volunteers. These individuals had no history of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, no risk factors for severe COVID-19, and no history of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. The researchers determined whether the volunteers were seronegative prior to inoculation, meaning that they had no detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. If such antibodies were present, it would indicate past infection or vaccination.

These procedures resulted in a total of data from 34 volunteers being included for analysis. Two volunteers were excluded from analysis because they had seroconverted to positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies between the time of screening and inoculation. Notably, these two volunteers participated in all subsequent study activities, enabling a sensitivity analysis of the results that included them.

The researchers inoculated all 36 volunteers with SARS-CoV-2 virus in the nose and then quarantined them for at least 14 days. Volunteers only returned home once they had two consecutive daily nasal and throat swabs that were negative for virus. Thus, those volunteers who had an infection after inoculation spent the duration of their infection in quarantine. This quarantine was required by ethical study protocols, in order that the study itself not increase community transmission of the virus.

The researchers collected data on the volunteers daily during quarantine and at follow-up visits at 30, 90, 180, 270, and 360 days post-inoculation. The assessments included body temperature, viral loads from throat and nasal swabs, surveys on symptoms, and computer-based cognitive tests on 11 major cognitive tasks. The cognitive testing varied the particular exercise for each of the 11 tasks to avoid learning and memorization of solutions in subsequent sessions. Nevertheless, some tasks were more prone to learning so the researchers also studied the effect of infection on “learning” vs. “non-learning” tasks.

Of the 36 inoculated volunteers, 18 became infected and developed COVID-19 and 16 did not. The two groups did not differ significantly in key demographics. No volunteers required hospitalization or supplemental oxygen during the study. Every volunteer completed all five follow-up visits. 15 volunteers acquired a non-COVID upper respiratory tract infection in their community between the end of quarantine and the fifth visit at day 360.

The researchers found that the infected group had significantly lower average “baseline-corrected global composite cognitive score” (bcGCCS) than the uninfected group at all follow-up intervals. At baseline, the two groups did not differ significantly. The difference between the two groups did not significantly vary by time, meaning that the infected group’s bcGCCS did not improve during the nearly year-long study.

Because the bcGCCS was a composite based on individual scores for the 11 cognitive tasks, the researchers also looked at which tasks in particular were impacted. They found that the most affected task was related to immediate object memory, in particular, recall of the spatial orientation of the object. There was no difference in picking the correct object itself, just its spatial orientation. This means that infected individuals had a hard time choosing the correct spatial orientation of the object they had just seen, for example, erroneously picking a mirror image of the object they had just seen.

The results were not different based on sex, learning vs. non-learning tasks, or whether individuals received remdesivir or had community-acquired upper respiratory infections.

Because the investigators controlled for so many factors including the strain of SARS-CoV-2, timing of infection, quarantine, and lack of prior infection and vaccination, the study provides high confidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection was responsible for the cognitive defects. The control of the timing of infection also enabled clarification of whether and when cognitive deficits occurred and improved. The differences between the groups were apparent by day 14 of quarantine and as noted previously, the deficits in the infected group did not improve let alone resolve.

The symptom surveys did not differ between the two groups. None of the volunteers, infected or uninfected, reported subjective cognitive issues or symptoms. Thus the infected volunteers with measurable cognitive deficits at one year post-infection were not aware of these deficits.

The study reaffirms prior research into persistent cognitive deficits and brain damage associated with COVID-19, including other studies which have found deficits among patients without symptomatic long COVID. Building upon this prior research, the latest study indicates that basically every single unvaccinated individual with a history of acute COVID-19 is at risk for persistent, measurable cognitive deficits.

Given that other studies have shown that vaccination reduces one’s risk of long COVID by roughly half, similar measurable cognitive deficits are likely prevalent among vaccinated people who suffer “breakthrough” infection, albeit likely at reduced rates of decline.

The study raises the urgent questions about the level of protection provided by vaccination, whether strains since the original “wild type” SARS-CoV-2 strain have similar effects on cognition, and what is the impact of these cognitive deficits on people’s performance at home, work, and school.

The study also adds to the large body of damning evidence that the ruling class’ “forever COVID” policy is of immense criminal proportions. Enabling a dangerous, mind-damaging virus to circulate among humanity worldwide represents a scale of inhumanity and dereliction of duty that is practically unfathomable. The malignity of this intentional policy is underscored by the current situation where the U.S. alone has had over 1 million new infections per day since August, with levels not projected to drop below 1 million until November.

The working class must deepen the struggle to replace the capitalist system that prioritizes profit over lives with a world socialist society that places human needs first.

Study Link: www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370%2824%2900421-8/fulltext

[matan4il]

Israel Has Created a New Standard for Urban Warfare. Why Will No One Admit It? | by John Spencer

The Israel Defense Forces conducted an operation at al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip to root out Hamas terrorists recently, once again taking unique precautions as it entered the facility to protect the innocent; Israeli media reported that doctors accompanied the forces to help Palestinian patients if needed. They were also reported to be carrying food, water and medical supplies for the civilians inside.

None of this meant anything to Israel's critics, of course, who immediately pounced. The critics, as usual, didn't call out Hamas for using protected facilities like hospitals for its military activity. Nor did they mention the efforts of the IDF to minimize civilian casualties.

In their criticism, Israel's opponents are erasing a remarkable, historic new standard Israel has set. In my long career studying and advising on urban warfare for the U.S. military, I've never known an army to take such measures to attend to the enemy's civilian population, especially while simultaneously combating the enemy in the very same buildings. In fact, by my analysis, Israel has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history—above and beyond what international law requires and more than the U.S. did in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The predominant Western theory of executing wars, called maneuver warfare, seeks to shatter an enemy morally and physically with surprising, overwhelming force and speed, striking at the political and military centers of gravity so that the enemy is destroyed or surrenders quickly. This was the case in the invasions of Panama in 1989, Afghanistan in 2001, Iraq in 2003 and the failed illegal attempt by Russia to take Ukraine in 2022. In all these cases, no warning or time was given to evacuate cities.

In many ways, Israel has had to abandon this established playbook in order to prevent civilian harm. The IDF has telegraphed almost every move ahead of time so civilians can relocate, nearly always ceding the element of surprise. This has allowed Hamas to reposition its senior leaders (and the Israeli hostages) as needed through the dense urban terrain of Gaza and the miles of underground tunnels it's built.

Hamas fighters, who unlike the IDF don't wear uniforms, have also taken the opportunity to blend into civilian populations as they evacuate. The net effect is that Hamas succeeds in its strategy of creating Palestinian suffering and images of destruction to build international pressure on Israel to stop its operations, therefore ensuring Hamas' survival.

Israel gave warning, in some cases for weeks, for civilians to evacuate the major urban areas of northern Gaza before it launched its ground campaign in the fall. The IDF reported dropping over 7 million flyers, but it also deployed technologies never used anywhere in the world, as I witness firsthand on a recent trip to Gaza and southern Israel.

Israel has made over 70,000 direct phones calls, sent over 13 million text messages and left over 15 million pre-recorded voicemails to notify civilians that they should leave combat areas, where they should go, and what route they should take. They deployed drones with speakers and dropped giant speakers by parachute that began broadcasting for civilians to leave combat areas once they hit the ground. They announced and conducted daily pauses of all operations to allow any civilians left in combat areas to evacuate.

These measures were effective. Israel was able to evacuate upwards of 85 percent of the urban areas in northern Gaza before the heaviest fighting began. This is actually consistent with my research on urban warfare history that shows that no matter the effort, about 10 percent of populations stay.

As the war raged on, Israel began giving out its military maps to civilians so they could conduct localized evacuations. This, too, has never been done in war. During my recent visit to Khan Yunis, Gaza, and the IDF civilian harm mitigation unit in southern Israel, I observed as the army began using these maps to communicate each day where the IDF would be operating so civilians in other areas would stay out of harm's way.

I saw that the IDF even tracked the population in real time down to a few-block radius using drone and satellite imagery and cell phone presence and building damage assessments to avoid hitting civilians. The New York Times reported in January that the daily civilian death toll had more than halved in the previous month and was down almost two-thirds from its peak.

Of course, the true number of Gaza civilian deaths is unknown. The current Hamas-supplied estimate of over 31,000 does not acknowledge a single combatant death (nor any deaths due to the misfiring of its own rockets or other friendly fire). The IDF estimates it has killed about 13,000 Hamas operatives, a number I believe credible partly because I believe the armed forces of a democratic American ally over a terrorist regime, but also because of the size of Hamas fighters assigned to areas that were cleared and having observed the weapons used, the state of Hamas' tunnels and other aspects of the combat.

That would mean some 18,000 civilians have died in Gaza, a ratio of roughly 1 combatant to 1.5 civilians. Given Hamas' likely inflation of the death count, the real figure could be closer to 1 to 1. Either way, the number would be historically low for modern urban warfare.

The UN, EU and other sources estimate that civilians usually account for 80 percent to 90 percent of casualties, or a 1:9 ratio, in modern war (though this does mix all types of wars). In the 2016-2017 Battle of Mosul, a battle supervised by the U.S. that used the world's most powerful airpower resources, some 10,000 civilians were killed compared to roughly 4,000 ISIS terrorists.

And yet, analysts who should know better are still engaging in condemnation of the IDF based on the level of destruction that's still occurred—destruction that is unavoidable against an enemy that embeds in a vast tunnel system under civilian sites in dense urban terrain. This effects-based condemnation or criticism is not how the laws of war work, or violations determined. These and other analysts say the destruction and civilian causalities must either stop or be avoided in an alternative form of warfare.

Ironically, the careful approach Israel has taken may have actually led to more destruction; since the IDF giving warnings and conducting evacuations help Hamas survive, it ultimately prolongs the war and, with it, its devastation.

Israel has not created a gold standard in civilian harm mitigation in war. That implies there is a standard in civilian casualties in war that is acceptable or not acceptable; that zero civilian deaths in war is remotely possible and should be the goal; that there is a set civilian-to-combatant ratio in war no matter the context or tactics of the enemy. But all available evidence shows that Israel has followed the laws of war, legal obligations, best practices in civilian harm mitigation and still found a way to reduce civilian casualties to historically low levels.

Those calling for Israel to find an alternative to inflicting civilian casualties to lower amounts (like zero) should be honest that this alternative would leave the Israeli hostages in captivity and allow Hamas to survive the war. The alternative to a nation's survival cannot be a path to extinction.

John Spencer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute (MWI) at West Point, codirector of MWI's Urban Warfare Project and host of the "Urban Warfare Project Podcast." He served for 25 years as an infantry soldier, which included two combat tours in Iraq. He is the author of the book "Connected Soldiers: Life, Leadership, and Social Connection in Modern War" and co-author of "Understanding Urban Warfare."

[ki-kink]

So in all these years of the were teen virus, has there ever been a cure or do the transformers enjoy it too much to care? Looks like they all have fun.

Bro, I had to grind a bit and stumbled on some stuff in a med book. It’s a real mission to read, man:

Seasonal Pubertal Regression (Regressio Pubertatis Temporalis): A Novel Syndrome

Abstract

Seasonal Pubertal Regression (SPR), also known colloquially as "Werteenager Syndrome," is an unusual, episodic condition characterized by the sudden reversion of adult patients to a hypersexualized, pubertal state during weekends. The condition exhibits a consistent temporal pattern, is suspected to have a viral etiology, and has profound physiological and behavioral implications. This paper outlines the clinical features, transmission mechanisms, potential pathophysiology, and observed complications of this emerging syndrome.

Clinical Features

SPR manifests as a dramatic transformation occurring primarily in adults with no prior history of endocrinological disorders. The onset of symptoms begins Friday morning with subtle prodromal signs, including excessive axillary hair growth and pronounced morning erections in male patients. By Friday evening, approximately one hour before sunset, the transformation is complete. During this period, patients exhibit:

Physiological Changes:

Rapid development of body hair, particularly on the chest and axillary regions.

Increased androgen levels, inferred from the heightened libido and secondary sexual characteristics.

Behavioral Changes:

Regression to adolescent-like language and interests, often mirroring the cognitive and emotional behavior of high school students with low academic performance.

Predominantly homosexual behavior, with a smaller subset displaying bisexual tendencies.

Compulsive sexual activity, often with multiple partners.

The transformation reverts spontaneously by Sunday evening, approximately one hour after sunset. However, in rare cases, a permanent adolescent state, termed Persistent Pubertal Regression (PPR), has been observed.

Transmission

SPR is presumed to be an infectious disease, transmitted through:

Sexual Contact: The primary route of infection, as evidenced by the sexual hyperactivity of patients during symptomatic episodes.

Body Fluids: Saliva, blood, and other bodily secretions are likely vectors.

Droplet Transmission: Close contact during symptomatic periods is hypothesized to contribute to the spread.

Epidemiological studies reveal a clustering of cases in densely populated areas with high rates of casual sexual encounters.

Pathophysiology

The precise mechanism remains unclear. However, the following factors are hypothesized:

Solar Influence: The timing of transformations suggests a strong correlation with circadian rhythms and solar positioning. This aligns with the hypothesis of a photoresponsive trigger.

Hormonal Dysregulation: An abrupt surge in androgenic and possibly estrogenic activity drives the secondary sexual characteristics and behavioral changes.

Neurological Impact: The regression in cognitive and linguistic abilities points to temporary, reversible alterations in neurochemical pathways.

Complications

One documented case of PPR provides insight into the potential severity of SPR. A pair of patients engaged in reciprocal oral-genital contact ("69" position) during the Sunday evening transition period. Both individuals retained their adolescent state indefinitely. This rare complication underscores the need for further study into the temporal dynamics of SPR.

Management and Future Directions

No effective treatments for SPR currently exist. Research priorities include:

Identification of the Pathogen: Advanced virological studies are needed to isolate the causative agent.

Therapeutic Interventions: Hormonal modulation and phototherapy are potential avenues for investigation.

Behavioral Support: Counseling and harm reduction strategies should be implemented to mitigate the social and psychological impacts on patients and their contacts.

Conclusion

SPR represents a unique intersection of infectious disease, endocrinology, and behavioral science. Its distinct clinical presentation, temporal predictability, and social implications warrant immediate scientific attention. Understanding this condition could provide novel insights into human physiology and the interplay between environment and health.

Dude, so I did some digging and found out about these two bros who were, like, getting down in the 69 position. One dude was this 42-year-old McDonald's branch manager, kind of hefty. Bet he caught it from a weekend warrior coworker. The other guy's a 56-year-old trucker who picked up a hitchhiker with the bad vibes. Now they're both chilling as juniors at a sports college in Minnesota.

Got booted from the Olympic swim team 'cause they wouldn’t shave their chest hair. But no sweat, they’re still legends at the local pool, doing lifeguard duty.

[thedreadvampy]

deeply shocking to learn once again for the uhhhh 200th time in a decade that capitulating to the far right and trying to market yourself as a slightly-closer-to-the-centre version of the far right party

(we'll do a bit more taxation, we'll do a mild attempt towards climate mitigation, but DON'T WORRY we hate migrants, queers and Muslims JUST AS MUCH AS THOSE OTHER GUYS we're not going to STOP you getting all your vindictive hearts want)

does not, in fact, make you more electable.

it at most gets you one term where people can no longer bear the incumbent far right. but if you stick to this, hem hem, "electability" strategy once in power, and all you talk about is right-wing talking points and policies, then the left will find you disgusting and the right will realise rapidly that you're a less-committed version of the far right party, and will vote for the far right party.

and then, as has happened at Every Election, when you lose the election you spend the whole time berating the left, and come to the conclusion you must court the right instead. Rinse and repeat.

Centre right liberalism is not and never was an effective electoral strategy against the far right, and that's not the fault of the left; it's the fault of the centre-right libs who have watched this tactic fail dramatically over and over again since 2016 and before and gone 'no but THIS TIME capitulating to the far right HAS to work' because they're ideologically unwilling to capitulate to even the moderate left enough to broaden their voter base or offer an actual alternative.

[max1461]

This has mostly disappeared from my corner of the internet over the last few years, but it used to be the case that every once in a while some story would go around about a corporation or a government doing some fucked up shit in pursuit of their self-interest, and people in the comments and reblogs would act utterly aghast that said government or corporation would do such a thing.

This was always baffling to me, and I have only ever been able to interpret it as a sign of profound naivety. Of course, I too think it is awful, sad, and unjust when people are exploited, killed, abused or so on by the institutions of our society. But "aghastness" is not synonymous with these things, to be aghast is to be (or present yourself as) in some sense surprised. And surprise is wholly unwarranted here.

I suppose this is part of my worldview that feels very fundamental, it feels deeply obvious, and I struggle to figure out how to talk productively with people who did not get the memo: exploitation and abuse of others in pursuit of self-interest is in some sense the natural behavior of agents in any kind of competitive context. It requires a lot of effort and coordination to mitigate this behavior. We do not feel "aghast" when someone is bitten by a dog. Dogs bite people, idiot! And corporations exploit their workers, lie, cheat, and steal, unless you work very hard to prevent them from doing so. And governments exploit and neglect their citizens, and go to war and kill and maim, unless you work very hard to prevent them from doing so. Individual humans, as members of a social species for which cooperation is paramount to survival, have quite a lot of specific programming whose purpose seems to be to discourage us from doing these things (empathy, loyalty, etc. etc.), and yet very often we still do them!

I have relatives who have a hard time believing in US atrocities abroad, on the grounds that "Americans are the good guys, and the US just wouldn't do that". This is very stupid! Do you think the US got where it is today without cracking some eggs? Bullshit. There's never been a government or a military in the history of humanity that "just wouldn't do that". I sometimes see posts on here from tankies, defending Chinese or Soviet atrocities on the grounds that these things must be Western propaganda, a socialist government just wouldn't do that. Again, I find this so obviously false as to be essentially beneath engaging with. We don't live in a just world! Often, a very effective strategy for achieving whatever it is you're trying to achieve will involve treating people like shit. It is what it is.

I'm not trying to play defense for injustice here. Obviously I think we should do as much as we can to prevent these abuses. But I think that doing so must start with basic recognition of the following: it is the nature of institutions—being as competition between them is essentially unavoidable, and being as their decision processes are unavoidably removed from the face-to-face social context which is so load-bearing in motivating respectful treatment between individual humans—to abuse people in pursuit of their (perceived) self-interest. This behavior is mundane and expected. It can be mitigated in various ways, ideological and structural, but it will probably always be with us to some degree. To look at it and express shock in any capacity suggests a completely misguided understanding of how the world works.

This is the first and most important thing I ever learned about politics or society.